Thoughts on Bitcoin in 2025: A Currency, a Gamble, or a Government Play?

April 9, 2025

Maybe Bitcoin will become the world reserve currency, maybe it’ll crash and burn, or maybe it’ll settle into some quirky niche—like a digital Beanie Baby for tech bros. I still don’t know how to weigh the odds, though I suspect it’s overdue for a dip after the wild ride of the past year. One thing’s clear: the metric to watch hasn’t changed—growth in legitimate transactions. A currency that’s mostly a speculative toy or a dark-web IOU won’t last.

Here we are in 2025, with Donald Trump back in the White House and Elon Musk running the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a shadowy outfit tasked with slashing federal fat. Bitcoin’s story has taken some bizarre turns since Trump’s inauguration in January. The dominant use case remains speculation—think Wall Street suits and X users betting on the next pump—while illegal transactions still hum along in the background. Legitimate use? It’s growing, sure—maybe 5-10 times what it was in 2023, thanks to Musk’s push for blockchain in government and a few big retailers sticking with it—but it’s still a speck compared to the trading frenzy on Coinbase.

Take a typical “legit” Bitcoin transaction today: someone buys a Tesla with BTC, and Tesla flips it to dollars faster than you can say “HODL.” Buyers aren’t embracing Bitcoin as a currency—they’re dodging taxes or laundering gains. I’ve got some BTC myself, bought years ago as a hedge. If I sell, Uncle Sam wants his cut; if I spend, maybe he doesn’t notice. It’s not exactly noble, and it’s not sustainable. Merchants converting BTC to USD instantly scream volatility fears—or just the cold reality that dollars still rule the world.

The smart folks I follow say legit transaction volume is up, but speculation’s growth is like a rocket on Musk’s SpaceX launchpad—dwarfing everything else. Trump’s administration hasn’t helped clarify things. In March, he signed an executive order for a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” using coins the feds already seized. Crypto bulls cheered, expecting a buying spree; instead, it’s a tepid stockpile, and Bitcoin’s price wobbled. Musk, meanwhile, has floated blockchain for government payments, hinting at DOGE’s influence. If Bitcoin’s to be a real currency, legitimate use needs to explode before the hype bubble pops.

Friends still ask me how to buy Bitcoin. Same as always, I ask why. Most want a quick buck, betting on a bigger fool down the line—the tulip strategy, alive and well. Others fear missing out if Trump and Musk make Bitcoin the new gold standard. Neither reason justifies a currency; they’re just fuel for a rollercoaster. The underworld—drugs, gambling—keeps BTC afloat too, but even crooks need dollars for rent. A crash could gut faith in Bitcoin worse than the 1637 tulip bust, and no one’s rushing to resurrect bulb futures.

Some call Bitcoin a store of value, not a currency—like gold with a digital twist. Trump’s reserve play nods to that, and Musk’s Tesla still holds BTC on its books. But gold’s got jewelry and circuits; Bitcoin needs the internet and a prayer. Preppers I know—gold bugs to the core—laugh at BTC. If the grid goes down, they’d rather clutch bars than USB drives.

Then there’s the weird stuff. Bitcoin’s a lifeline for dodging China’s currency controls—mine with cheap yuan, sell for dollars. Musk’s DOGE might love that chaos, but it’s money laundering, not a currency foundation. Taxes? You still owe them in dollars, and oil’s priced in USD too. Trump’s not ditching the greenback—DOGE’s cuts haven’t touched the IRS yet, and OPEC isn’t taking BTC. Patrick Collison’s old quip about “popular sentiment tidal forces” feels optimistic; the dollar’s got guns and inertia.

Musk’s role adds a wild card. DOGE’s slashed agencies left and right—USAID’s gone, CFPB’s gutted—but he’s pushing blockchain experiments. Rumors swirl he wants Bitcoin for Pentagon contracts or Social Security payouts. Transparency’s the pitch: every transaction on-chain, corruption in plain sight. It’s a dreamy vision—low fees, global reach—but wallet swaps could keep it anonymous anyway. Trump loves the optics; Musk loves the tech. Will it boost legitimate use? Too early to tell.